
2006 was a stellar year for Roger Federer; with a staggering 92-5 record including three of the four grand slams, the Swiss maestro continues relentlessly to re-write the history books as an all-time great.
Had it not been for his Spanish clay court nemesis Rafael Nadal, Federer would most probably have won all four majors in 2006, becoming the first man to do so since Rod Laver in 1969 when three of the four slams were played on grass.
So, together with Nadal, who will be Federer's main challengers in 2007? Can anyone stop Federer on anything other than a clay court?
Andy Murray was the only person to beat Federer last year apart from Nadal, and he did it on the hard courts of Cincinnati against a somewhat depleted world number one who had just cleaned up at the Toronto Masters a week earlier. The victory nevertheless was an important one for the fast-rising Scot who is fulfilling the prophecies of some illustrious former champions as being a big stage player capable of going to the very top. It may be that Murray could spearhead an assault on the Federer dominance, however, there are still major question marks concerning his temperament and also his suspect fitness level. It would appear that the hiring of the canny and tactically astute Brad Gilbert as his personal coach has lifted the Scot to another level, elevating his ranking to well inside the top 20 for the first time. But is he ready to dislodge Federer? Possibly, if he can catch the Swiss on an off day as he did in 2006 I suspect, but most probably not over 5 sets at a slam; Federer is just too good.
Novak Djokovic is another young player who is every bit as promising as Murray and like the Scot also finished the year in the top 20 for the first time. Although he has yet to beat the world number one, Nole showed his potential last year winning two ATP titles in Amersfoot and Metz. The affable Serb has the weapons off the ground to climb even further this year, but it may take him a little longer to claim the scalp of the Swiss world champion.
So if the young guns such as Murray and Djokovic are not quite ready to trouble Federer on a consistent basis, who is?
Certainly Nadal will continue to be a pain in the Swiss butt on the clay. However, there are signs that Federer is beginning to get the measure of the Spaniard with victories in the Wimbledon final and again at the Masters Cup where he beat the left-hander at the semi-final stage in straight sets. This strange rivalry which threatened to undermine Federer's authority at the very top after he lost to Nadal in the French Open final which resulted in an embarrassing 1-6 record, is now seen as just a blip on his otherwise perfect record. It may be that 2007 will see Federer's breakthrough on clay and a first title at Roland Garros as he finally executes his all-court game to perfection. He will need to beat Nadal beforehand though, which he crucially failed to do in Monte Carlo and Rome in 2006.
At Wimbledon it will take someone with a huge serve and a big game to stop Federer if he's not one hundred percent on his game. Mario Ancic perhaps, or Joachim Johansson if he's serving really big. Other than that, a record equalling fifth consecutive Wimbledon title (Bjorn Borg 1976-1980) looks very much on the cards.
It's safe to say that the likes of Andy Roddick, James Blake, Nikolay Davydenko, David Nalbandian, Lleyton Hewitt, Ivan Ljubicic and co will not be a credible threat to Federer who has their number having routed each of them consistently in the past. Marcos Baghdatis is still something of an unknown quantity at the highest level. Can he step it up against Federer? He did trouble the Swiss briefly in the final of the Australian Open last year having blasted his way ever so impressively into his first grand slam final, but he finished the year rather lamely after injuring himself in Bangkok, but still finished the year just outside the top 10. It could be the Cypriot who stops the Federer Express, but it seems unlikely somehow. The talented grinning showman just does not seem to possess the cutting edge to apply the coup de grace to a champion of Federer's calibre.
As things stand in conclusion, Federer has very few real challengers. Assuming that the world number 1 continues to play at the unbelievably high level that we have seen in the last 4 years, he is very likely to finish the year with another single digit defeat statistic. He is simply the best; potentially the best ever. He has almost double the ranking points of Nadal who looks set to become one of the best players never to reach number 1. He has no intention of relinquishing the top position anytime soon having declared maintaining his ranking supremacy as one of his goals for 2007.
Federer has once again laid down the gauntlet, it is up to the others to step up to the plate and take him on. One feels however that it will all be in vain but hopefully they will enjoy the challenge.
ANDRE JONES